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My Elliott Wave price pattern and ratio analysis indicated that beginning the week of September 12, platinum was in the fifth or final wave from the June high. A significant and very reliable pattern was in its final stages. I often play a bit fast and loose with Elliott Wave "rules." I find what is most important is the general form, pattern and price ratio of an unfolding price. The count shown in Figure 1, admittedly, is not a textbook Elliott Wave fit, but was good enough to indicate the pattern down was likely being completed.

There was an important cluster of price levels that indicated the $472-$486 price zone was likely to result in the termination of the decline. Price swings almost always result in an obvious relationship to prior swings. The challenge is to determine which relationships will be important at any one time. The June 22 high at $642 to the June 29 low at $553 equaled $89. The June 20 high at $608 to the August 9 low at $518 equaled $90. Both have significance—89 is an important Fibonacci number and 90 is an important Gann time-and-price number.

A price decline of $89-$90 from the August 25 high at $562 would fall at $473-$472. The decline from the July 7 high at $594 to the August 9 low at $518 equaled $76. A $76 decline from the August 25 high would fall at $486.

Price fell dramatically on September 19, leaving a gap. This price activity had all the characteristics of an exhaustion gap which is very typical of platinum in its final stages of decline or advance. September 23 resulted in a wide range outside day with a close near the low of the day. This type of intraday market activity usually would indicate that much lower prices were likely. However, price was completing a very reliable Elliott Wave pattern and moving into a very important support zone exactly within a time zone where there was a high probability of a significant change in trend time. Time, price and pattern were coinciding, indicating an important change in trend was at hand.