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I hope you have read the cover story in the August 31, 2002 issue of New Scientist magazine entitled “Living By Numbers” (titled inside, “I Know What You’ll Do Next Summer”), an excellent article on the Wave Principle and socionomics. If you cannot find the magazine in your area, we have good news. One week after publishing, feature articles are placed in the online New Scientist Archive. You can have full access to the archives by signing up for a free 7-day trial subscription to the magazine at http:// archive.newscientist.com. The sign-up process requires name, address and email. Your 7-day trial username and password are then sent to your email account. Also, we recommend subscribing to this fine publication.

Convention vs. Socionomics

At the start of a major-degree bear market, there will be two opposing approaches to forecasting. Here are examples of the difference: A conventional analyst says, “The economy will expand indefinitely as long as the Fed does not do something unimaginably stupid.” A socionomist says, “Soon, unemployment will rise, wages will fall, stores and factories will close and farms and businesses will go under, and the Fed will be — or at least will appear to be — stupid and ineffectual.” A conventional analyst says, “We’ll be fine unless something unexpected happens, like war.” A socionomist says, “We will probably go to war.” A conventional analyst says, “The recovery will get going strongly unless the government does something incredibly stupid.” A socionomist says, “The government will impose protectionist tariffs, increase restrictions on business, provoke foreign governments, spend more of the resources of productive citizens, create “make-work” programs that stifle production, raise taxes and otherwise contribute to the downturn in countless ways.”

The conventional analyst says, “We’ll be fine politically unless some unexpected radical trend gains popularity.” A socionomist says, “Politics will polarize and radicalize.” A conventional analyst says, “We’ll be fine as long as people continue to get along with one another.” A socionomist says, “There will be labor conflicts, racial conflicts, conflicts between the sexes, party conflicts, religious conflicts and class conflicts.”

After the bottom of the bear market, the scene will be the opposite. Conventional analysts will say, “The economy is mired in depression, and there are no signs of recovery. We had better get used to it.” Socionomists will say, “The economy is about to enter one of the strongest growth periods ever. Jobs will come back, factories and stores will re-open and prosperity will return.” Conventional analysts will say, “This war will never end, and if it does, we will probably lose.” Socionomists will say, “The coming uptrend will assure an end to the conflict.” Conventional analysts will say, “There is no way out of the ill feeling between the opposing forces of labor and management, government and business, haves and have-nots, religions and races.” Socionomists will say, “A new era of increasing brotherhood lies ahead. Be patient.”