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Only when the market completes a reliable pattern, near a time period indicating a change in trend and at an important price level do I enter or exit a trade. All three dimensions must coincide.

Price had remained above the Gann 1?2 angle up to this point in time. The 1?2 and 1?1 angles were drawn from the September 26 low as indications of support. Price rallying above the 1?2 angle indicates a very strong market. Because the market moved up so strongly above the Gann 1?2 angle, price should not correct more than 50% of the first swing. A correction of more than 50% from such a strong initial rally would indicate a false rally. Price moving below a 50% retracement indicates to me my price-and-pattern analysis is wrong, and I would want to take my profits and stand aside. I moved my stop up to $510 or $2 below a 50% retracement of the A wave to lock in a $21-per-ounce or $1,050 profit for my long contract at this point.

Next, I analyzed how the market is likely to unfold. I expected the market to unfold, at a minimum, in an ABC pattern from the September low (Figure 3). The C wave or second swing in the direction of the rally trend should exceed the A wave high.

My time, price and pattern analysis suggested a major change in trend in September. This was confirmed by price exceeding all the minimum expectations for a correction on the initial swing from the September 26 low. I expected at least one more rally swing to exceed the $544 high.

Price corrected to just $1 above the Gann 1?2 angle and reversed back up. The 1?2 angle was tested again, followed by a very wide range day with a new high close. This confirmed that the C wave was under way to new highs. Now I'm excited as all my time, price and pattern analysis is falling into place with confirmation after confirmation. I now calculate the price objectives for the C wave. One measurement is C wave = 61.8%(A wave) + B wave low which, in this case, equals 61.8%(544-481.5) + 523 = $562.

The $562 level coincides with the August 25 swing high. This coincidence of resistance levels could be important. If the C wave equals 100% of A wave, the objective is $586. The $586 level is close to $581, a 62% retracement of the June-September bear cycle (point P).

Price rallied strongly without hesitation through the initial price objective at $562 and rallied above the Gann 1?4 up angle. The final swings of major moves that are rising at a velocity above the 1?4 angle often terminate once the 1?4 support angle is violated. If price rallied into the next price objective zone at $581-$586, I would be very alert for indications of a top and reversal.

It's happening again. The completion of an Elliott 5 Wave pattern, precisely within an important price zone of resistance On November 3, price rallied to new highs above $586, but closed below the prior day'S close, resulting in a reversal day. More importantly, the $586 resistance price fell at the 2?1 Gann angle from the June high on this very day. Recall that the A wave high fell at the coincidence of the Gann 1?1 angle from the June high and a 38% retracement of the June-September bear cycle. Now a reversal day unfolds at the coincidence of the Gann 1?1 angle and the 62% retracement of the June-September cycle. The ABC pattern has unfolded as expected and price has entered a very significant coincidence of important longer-term price resistance while failing to close above the 2?1 angle. The short-term reversal day pattern indicates a top.