Despite the initial occurrence of heavy selling due to profit-taking, the market could recover quickly once
this period of profit-taking has concluded. Consequently, the very early price action after a buying peak
may not give a clear signal as to the near-term direction. More price action is required to determine the
outcome of the trading range. The boundaries of the trading in which prices vacillate between a particular
range are difficult to estimate early on. Patience is required to allow the range to establish itself.
After the first decline, typically, another assault on the recent highs is attempted. If the volume on this
advance (Figure 1, point B) is weak, then the evidence points to lower prices, because the lack of volume
indicates the higher prices are not attracting buyers. Without a sign of increasing demand, the market
should fail to hold its gains. At this stage, it is likely that participants who did not sell the last time the
market was in this price range will not let this second chance slip away. A decline in prices will unfold
without a firm bid to the market.
As this decline moves lower, a price that should attract buying will be reached. The buying will be made
up of participants who believe that the price level reflects an undervalued situation. The demand, in turn,
should be very strong. The evidence of demand is represented by the high volume and the close at the
upper side of the range (Figure 1, point C). It would be even more favorable if the volume was larger on
this minor advance compared with the day (point A) of profit taking that initiated the onset of the trading
range, for this would indicate that the buying on the sidelines was stronger than the sellers.
Go to Beginning >>> Stocks & Commodities
|