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This paper aims to make some new forecasting techniques comprehensible to the widest possible audience and so contains no formulae.
Technically, we aim to provide useful forecasts. The utility of a forecast depends on a user’s objectives. Our present work is targeted at users whose decisions can be made on the basis of a general view of whether prices will go up, down or stay about the same. We also have other methods, currently in a research phase, which are arguably more accurate, but which produce less-smooth forecasts from which a general view of price movement is harder to infer. Users requiring limits to price movements (e.g. for setting trading stops) may find those forecasts more appropriate. These examples illustrate the general point that it is difficult to define what is meant by a “good” forecast, without some knowledge of its intended use.

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