Read Many Publications, Watch the Television Business News, and Follow the Consensus of Opinion
This is a surefire way to
get confused and lose money at the same time. I call this approach "Edsel
trading," named after the infamous Edsel that was designed by a committee
attempting to incorporate all of the changes and features recommended by
experts and consumers alike. While the Edsel may have been well ahead of its
time, it failed miserably as a product. When you attempt to trade on the basis
of the consensus of opinion, you'll end up with an Edsel trading system, a
system that seems like it should work but doesn't. In fact, my research with
contrary opinion indicators strongly suggests that you are better off trading
against majority opinion than with it. Futures trading is a loner's game. You
must find a combination of indicators and tools that works for you - shut out as
much outside influence as possible.
Add to Losing Positions to Average Your Cost
Here's a great method for
losing your speculative capital. In fact, it works so well that many traders
have virtually guaranteed themselves losses by following this time-tested
strategy. The methodology is simple: Whenever a position goes against you,
hold on to it and add to it repeatedly to lower your average cost. When the
market eventually moves your way, you will come out ahead. The reasoning is very
logical in a game where no margin is required and time is not important. But in
futures, and particularly in futures options, time passed is money lost.
Contracts expire, margin calls continue, and the trend most often continues in
its existing direction. While you may be right in the long run, you will most
likely be broke in the short run.
Take Your Profits Quickly and Ride Your Losses
This is another popular
strategy among losers. To see why this approach is so popular, let's examine
its psychology. Most traders are anxious. They are so worried about the
ego-deflating experience of being wrong and losing money that when they have a
profit, they are afraid it will not last. They are inclined to jump out of
their profits quickly to get the gratification of knowing that they have banked
the money and that the market cannot take it back. However, when there is a
loss, things are quite different. Traders simply cannot admit to a loss. There
is the perennial hope that things will eventually get better, that the market
will turn around. And each small turnaround rewards the trader for hanging on.
Unfortunately, it is often a classic case of one step forward and two steps
back as the position continues to erode.
Start with Limited Capital and Attempt to Parlay It
into a Fortune
This is the trader's Utopian dream. The Horatio Alger
story is still the image that inspires traders to take their shot at making it
big in futures trading. Most traders begin with limited capital, seeking to hit
the one big trade that will propel them to success. However, the odds of doing
so are slim. The simple fact is this: The less you start with, the lower your
odds of success. It's a matter of logic. If you're hoping to get on board that
one big move, it may take 10 consecutive losers before the winner comes. By
then your capital could easily be depleted, and you'll miss the move you were
hoping for.
My advice: Be realistic.
Begin with a good capital base. Be prepared for numerous small losses. Expect
to be wrong 5, even 10, trades in a row before you hit a big trade. When you do
hit a big one, don't get out too quick. Remember that the less you begin with,
the less likely your chances of success.
Category: Methods of Daytrading
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