standard deviations above and below a moving average of price
More
importantly, one can combine on one graph other indicators and technical aids
together with the Midas S/R levels. The third
figure gives an example of this for Western Digital (WDC). Here we have
defined three windows, one for an MACD histogram, one for on-balance volume, and the main window for the price and
other technical aids. In addition to three Midas S/R levels, we have included conventional trendlines
(straight lines joining peaks and troughs), so-called Bollinger Bands (2
standard deviations above and below a
moving average of price), and bullish (green) and bearish (red) flags derived
from Japanese Candlestick pattern
recognition
software.
Focus
particular attention on the March 1995 time frame. The price has consolidated
down to the primary (S1) Midas support with
a degree of porosity similar to the previous contact (in May-June 1994).
When the three bullish candlestick signals appeared, this became a compelling buying opportunity
(especially the third such signal at which time the price was simultaneously at
both the trendline and the lower Bollinger band).
The key to
profitable trading using Midas is to have a sufficiently large number of stocks
under surveillance, so that when such
"golden opportunities" come along - as they surely do from
time to time - one can recognize them as such and concentrate enough buying power on one's position to take full
advantage of the situation. This leads naturally to the question "when
should I sell?". We'll discuss
that in the next article.
The
insights into the underlying structure of price behavior provided by Midas
should be viewed as yet another instrument in the toolbox of the technical analyst. By itself, Midas is not the key
to instant success in trading; but when used skillfully in concert with other techniques that one has already
found to be useful, it can provide the additional edge that is needed in what
has become an increasingly
sophisticated and competitive zero-sum game.
In the
previous article, we have seen how intragroup comparisons and synergistic use
of other tools can increase one's chances of
identifying potentially profitable trend reversals. (While we have
emphasized entry points for long positions, the inherent symmetry between support and resistance
hierarchies in the Midas method allows the same methodology to be used in
trading the short side). Having thereby
determined "when to buy", we raised the companion issue of "when
to sell". In the course of Â
examining this question we will come to recognize some more fundamental
structural orderliness in price behavior - i.e. beyond
the mere
existence of the S/R hierarchies.
In the
early articles we have already cited some qualitative indications that a bull
move is running out of steam: deterioration of
the obv curve (i.e. obv starts to trend downwards while the price is
moving sideways) or the appearance of fourth, fifth and even higher order S/R levels. Now we know to
watch out also for bearish indications in the peer group of stocks, and for
ancillary signals such as trend line
penetration, classic chart reversal patterns (e.g. "head and shoulders'),
and Japanese Candlestick alerts.
But does
Midas itself have anything new to contribute in identifying sell points? If one
is trading a bounce from a theoretical
support level during a pullback from a recent high, we have already seen
many times that the theoretical resistance level "launched" at that high is a viable price objective for
the bounce. This is evident in the Midas chart for Cooper Companies, for example, in the bounce from S2 to R1 at a
cumulative volume of about 290,000 (round lots).
Category: Methods of technical analysis
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