strongly trending move
In the
previous article we introduced the concept of TOPFINDER (or BOTTOMFINDER)
wherein a strongly trending move finds
support (or resistance) on pullbacks at a new type of S/R curve which
accelerates away from the normal S/R and terminates at a predetermined cumulative volume. In order to
recognize the types of Midas curves for which TOPFINDER may be applicable,
it is worthwhile to examine a few more
examples before we present the algorithm and consider its implications.
The first
figure contains a Midas chart for a massive bull move and subsequent bear
correction in Swift Transportation. In contrast to the Midas charts you have seen thus far (which are generated
by a Lotus 123 spreadsheet program I initially wrote for the HP 95LX pocket computer) this figure is
obtained from a Windows application called WINMIDAS which we will discuss in a
future article (and possibly even have
available for download!).
Per the
comments in the previous article, after launching S3 and observing that the
price failed to pull back to S3 - trending instead strongly upwards - a TOPFINDER curve T3 was launched as well. As
the move evolved, the point at which T3 was fitted to the various pullbacks was refined until the
final fitting point shown in the figure was used.
Note that
the subsequent pullbacks were well fitted by this TOPFINDER curve but that the
predicted burnout was a bit premature.
Furthermore, the subsequent correction went only as far as S4, rather
than S3. Was this a failure of the theory? Not quite, for (as shown in the second figure) when we go back
and launch the TOPFINDER T4 associated with S4 - again fitting it to the
same pullback as with T3 - we find lo
and behold that with T4 the burnout point shifts to the right just enough to
catch the actual top!
So
apparently just as there are short term bull moves contained within longer term
ones, TOPFINDERS associated with different
members of an S/R hierarchy can be simultaneously operative. This is
clearly shown in the third figure which is an (older style) MIDAS chart for Qualcomm (QCOM). Note first
that the TOPFINDER T1, associated with the primary support level S1,
catches the climax of the whole bull
move quite well (actually the first of the double-top formation).
Yet within
this "six-bagger" move from 7 to 43, was a near doubling move from
about 22 to 41 associated with the launch of S4. If the corresponding T4 is plotted, it is seen that the
intermediate top is located quite well when T4 is fitted to the short term pullbacks as shown. (In the event, the
subsequent correction carried only to S5 rather than S4 as anticipated, but
this deviation from form could be
interpreted as a complication arising from the fact that the T1 had enough
"fuel" left to counteract the decline from the T4 peak.)
Category: Methods of technical analysis
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