The crown formation, which can occur at
tops (bull crown) or bottoms (bear crown),
is similar to the H&S, but the two patterns
have important differences. The top of
Figure 1 shows the classic H&S formation,
in which pivot-low D and pivot-high E
form at about the same level as previous
comparable pivot points В and A.
In a bull crown pattern, pivot D extends
below the previous pivot, forming a downswing
that usually extends 1.272 times the
previous leg up (B-C). Price then rallies .618
of the distance from С to D-l, creating pivot
E-l (see the pattern at the bottom of Figure 1).
The formation of pivot D-l well below
the previous pivot breaks the pattern's price
symmetry and establishes momentum in
the opposite direction. When price rallies to
form E-l, it is actually making a normal .618
Fibonacci retracement before continuing
lower. The degree of quantification and
expectation provided by applying Fibonacci
calculations gives the crown formation an
edge over the standard H&S pattern.
Figure 2 (p. 62) shows a complete bull
crown pattern. Most traders will still consider
this an H&S-type pattern because, for the
most part, they are only looking at the left
and right shoulders (and, of course, the head
in the middle). However, the fact that the
pivot low after the right shoulder extends
well below the pivot after the left shoulder (as much as 1.618 of the B-C upswing)
improves the odds of an eventual downside
reversal.
Bear crowns are equivalent patterns
that occur after down moves and signal
upside reversals. The relationship
between the price swings is the same as
that for bull crowns. For simplicity, the
remainder of the article will discuss bull
crowns.
The TICK/TIKI indicator
The TICK is a short-term (intraday) indicator that measures the bullish (upticking)
or bearish (down-ticking) activity in NYSE stocks throughout the day.
TIKI is the symbol for the same indicator calculated on Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) stocks; some data services also calculate the TICK for Nasdaq
stocks.
The TICK/TIKI is a breadth indicator that gives traders an intraday look at
the "internal" strength or weakness of the market - that is, the strength or
weakness beyond whether the overall market is up on a point or percentage
basis. By comparing the number of stocks advancing to stocks declining, the
indicator reflects the market's up or down momentum at a given moment.
For example, if the DJIA index is up marginally but down-ticking stocks are
consistently outnumbering up-ticking stocks (and the number of down-ticking
stocks is increasing, reflected by a downtrending TIKI indicator), it is likely
only a relative handful of strong stocks are propping up the overall market.
When buying completes in these stocks, a down move may result.
Two contrarian uses of the TICK/TIKI indicator are to look for divergence
between price and the indicator, and to use high or low TICK/TIKI readings
to identify momentum extremes - similar to how many traders use oscillators
such as the relative strength index (RSI) or stochastics to locate overbought
and oversold points.
A divergence occurs when price makes a new high (or low) but the
TICK/TIKI makes a lower high (or higher low), failing to confirm the price
move and warning of slackening momentum. A related phenomenon would be
a steady trend in the TICK/TIKI that runs counter to the trend of the market.
Extreme high or low TICK/TIKI readings can accompany market climaxes.
Because the TICK/TIKI is a snapshot of the market at a given moment (and
is thus very volatile), it can be deceptive. As a result, the TICK/TIKI is commonly
smoothed with a 10-period moving average to remove some of its
"noise" and better reveal the indicator's direction and patterns.
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